10.23.07

Quick Fire Update

The fire near my place is 10x as big as it was yesterday...you can't imagine the strength of these things. Thousands are displaced and many homes are now being destroyed.

I realize Southern California is probably the most-hated area in the country...but don't be afraid to throw us a little love in the prayer department...some people are in BAD.

Book Review Update

I finished Blow last week and am on to the story of the ATF agent that infiltrated The Mongols motorcycle gang. I have three other books on drug-trafficking to read...I'm think I may just review them all at once.

And on to the meat...




NBA Preview

Me writing an NBA Preview would be like Britney Spears writing a book on parenting...but since I write a preview for everything (I'll be writing my preview for the Delaware Congressional Session next week) I thought I'd give it a run.


The truth is, the NBA fascinates me. Of the professional sports, I probably spend more time reading and rereading articles about the NBA...and why? Because I WILL NOT watch a single regular-season game on television this year. I may watch a quarter here or quarter there--but i have no plans to break my five-year-run of not watching an entire game. And why? Because it is boring as hell.



The rules are so centered on the idea of one-on-one play that it is unspeakable. It is this same obsession with crap hoops that turn the NBA into a phenomenal business. One trade can actually have a tangible effect on a team.



And with that in mind...let's break it down team-by-team...

East
Atlantic Division

Boston: Without question, the most-interesting team in the league with the trio of Garnett, Pierce and Allen. I honestly think that this is a perfect combo--the three have both been on such terrible teams of late that they're going to be willing to play together. The issue is that defensively, they have more holes than the plot of The Comebacks.
(Sidebar--saw this beauty on Monday. Save a GOLD STAR PERFORMANCE by Brittany Buckner, one of the great up and comers in Hollywood, it lacked in a few places. Buckner really carries the show though...3 Stars, almost exclusively because of her...)

But I digest...

New Jersey: I just found out that Vince Carter was only 31...which means that my guess was only 26 years off. This team has aged faster than Robin Williams in Jack. They're a playoff contender despite their age, but the rule against respirators is going to inhibit Jason Kidd's performance.

New York: What were the Knicks thinking when they traded for Zach Randolph? The worst chemistry in the league and you add...uh...Zach Randolph. What do you think the conversation between Isiah and the ownership was like on that one? It reminds me of that conversation between Col. Jessup and Lt. Col. Markinson. "We should trade for Zach Randolph...yes...yes I'm sure that's what we should do. In fact--let's trade for the whole 2001 Blazers team. SAM! Get President Stern on the phone, we're surrendering our franchise to Las Vegas."
Except they actually did it...

Philadelphia: If there was some way to convince every team in the league to give their all every night, there is an outside chance that this team goes 0-82. (And then somehow loses the Lottery...)

Toronto: This team is two years away from being even more disappointing than they are right now. They have Ford, Bosh and Bargnani--with Kapono, who has Horry-esque potential as a role-player...and I can't see a scenario where they make the playoffs.

Division Winner: Boston

Central

Chicago: People have been wanted this team to be the best young team in basketball for three years now. They now have NINE players who could contribute on any team in the league--but I still think they're a trade away from being a contender. They're a solid playoff team...but not much more.

Cleveland: Does their run in the playoffs help or hurt their prospects for this year? I say the latter. Lebron can't possibly carry them every night, and unless Daniel Gibson can become what everyone wants him to be, they have virtually ZERO bench-play.

Detroit: Yes, they've peaked, but they still have the best starting five in the Eastern Conference and made a PERFECT draft-pick in Rodney Stuckey, who will see significant minutes. On the downside--look for a big drop-off in Billups. He's older, and now he has the big contract...still a solid point--but probably no longer in the top five.

Indiana: Damn...when I wrote my prediction about Philadelphia, I forgot that the Sixers were still in the league...

Milwaukee: A bit of a sleeper. They should get a solid 3-4 minutes a game out of Yi, which will make for the best comedy of the early season--but a solid starting five and some athletic young players make them a contender in a tough division.

Division Winner: Detroit

Southeast

Atlanta: This team is two years away from being a contender--but they're about a week away from being one of the most-exciting teams in the league. (Oh--and I thought I was being prank-called yesterday, but it turns out that their GM was offering to trade Shelden Williams for a burned copy of my Beach Boys Pet Sounds album. I told him I was going to need a little more...)

Charlotte: The injury to Adam Morrison almost guarantees that the Bobcats will a) lead the league in fast-break-points and b) never make the mistake of drafting another player from the worst basketball program in the NCAAs.

Miami: (Note--what I'm about to write is not cut/paste from an NBA Preview from 1996) Shaquille O'Neal stays healthy and re-establishes himself as the go-to center in the Eastern Conference---and the addition of Anfernee Hardaway could give them a solid kick-out guy off of the bench. (But really...I think the Heat have one more solid season with Shaq as a focal-point...and Penny has something left--just go with me on this...)

Orlando: 1. They can't possibly believe that Jameer Nelson is a long-term solution at point guard. 2. Don't people realize that Rashard Lewis is the exact type of player that KILLS teams? 3. I want to hug Dwight Howard. He's two years away from being the best big man in the league and he WILL NOT be in the playoffs this year.

Washington: Agent Zero in a contract year? I don't play NBA Fantasy, but I'd be on him like Kirstie Alley on a carton of Chunky Monkey. Oh--and you had 19.7 as the over/under on the number of points/game that Antawn Jamison averaged last year, would you have bet $1 of your worst enemy's money on the over? No? You would have lost...

Division Winner: Miami

Playoffs
Division Winners: Boston, Detroit, Miami
Other Playoff Teams: New Jersey, Chicago, Cleveland, Milwaukee, Washington
Finals: Boston vs. Miami
Conference Winner: Miami

West

Northwest:

Denver: Is it too early to say that the Iverson-Anthony experiment is a flop? Yes, they'll have a home game in the first round of the playoffs...but if it coincides with a home series for the World Champion Rockies, it will be poorly attended.

Minnesota: Oy. My only prediction for this team is that Corey Brewer plays WAY more than he should be. He'll be a solid defender for a long time--but he needs about 8 years in the weight-room before he can hold Lebron off...

Portland: Poor, poor Portland. The Oden injury broke the heart of every Portland fan and that of every sports fan with a soul. But it isn't ultimately as big a loss as it could have been somewhere else. Roy and Aldridge continue to improve for another year, they get a good draft pick and add a solid defender--then they get Oden back in a year and suddenly they're the best team in the Northwest Division.

Seattle: I still don't understand the drafting of Jeff Green AFTER Durant. Not only do they play the same position, they left a monstrous hole at point guard wide-open. Am I the only person who has realized that Luke Ridnour is not worthy of minutes in the NBA? This is an awful thing to write...but he may not only be the worst starting point-guard in the league, he may be the worst STARTER in the league! (And this is the same league that let Shawn Bradley play for like ten years!)

Utah: A solid-start last year faded late. Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer will continue to improve...but this team has a lot of moving parts. They're like the Erector Set of the Western Conference...

Division Winner: Denver

Golden State: Remind me again how they got to the second round of the playoffs last year?

Clippers: GOOD LORD I WANT THEM TO BE BETTER! But the loss of Brand (not a chance he's back by the estimated February) and Livingston still recovering, they are going to lose A LOT. (Despite that--they're the best team in Los Angeles whose mascot is an eight-letter-word.)

Lakers: They can't move Kobe--he just isn't worth what they'll demand. And because of that, they're hopeless. It is so bad in LA that I'm almost feeling bad for Kobe that he has to play for a team that saw Javaris Crittendon and Derek Fischer as the solution to their problems. Almost...

Phoenix: Let me get this straight--Barbosa and Diaw are coming off of the bench? Should the rest of this division even show up for games?? They're going to be unstoppable...averaging 120/game isn't out of the question. And I LOVE the Grant Hill pickup.
(There are rumors that Kobe could still go to the Suns for Marion. I don't think it would happen, but it would be the most-stacked-deck imaginable. It would be like ESPN somehow convincing Rick Reilly to come write for them.)

Sacramento: The preseason injury to Spencer Hawes is going to delay what will be a phenomenal Robert Swift vs. Spencer Hawes matchup in the Northwest Division that could remind basketball enthusiasts of the inner-squad wars that used to happen at Duke between Erik Meek and Cherokee Parks.

Division Winner: HAHAHAHAHAHA...uh...Not the Sonics.

Dallas: I don't love Dallas this year. I think the Warriors series opened up a formula that every top Western team but Phoenix can use---and Phoenix can just outscore them. I look for a little fall-off this year.

Houston: If Yao remains healthy, Steve Francis locates his brain, and Luis Scola is as good as advertised, this team could win this division. That is a lot to ask, but I love the balance of the Rockets.

Memphis: I will give $10,000 to anyone who can watch this team play an entire game without vomiting. That includes season-ticket holders, players and coaches. Considering Pau Gasol a go-to-guy is like considering Carmen Elektra a virgin.

New Orleans/Oklahoma/Las Vegas/Tehran: New Orleans did something unheard-of in the NBA. They had a solid starting five, loaded with athletic players but were short an offensive big man in the front court that could come off of the bench and give them minutes--so what did they do? They drafted Julian Wright, when most teams would have drafted a European embryo. Kudos.
Unfortunately for their wise management, they still play in the Western Conference.

San Antonio: Tough not to love them when they bring EVERYONE back and add Ime Udoka and Marcus Williams--who could be great in short spells. Remember two years ago when Dwayne Wade carried the Heat to the championship and then everyone just assumed he was the new go-to on his team? With any other coach, that would happen with Tony Parker--but Greg Popovich is smart enough to know that Parker is still only 25 and can lay big shot for the next ten years...in the meantime they'll just go along winning with the best big man in the league...

Division Winner: San Antonio



Playoffs:
Division Winners: Denver, Phoenix, San Antonio
Other playoff teams: Utah, Houston, New Orleans, Dallas, LA Lakers
Conference Finals: Phoenix vs. San Antonio
Conference Winner: San Antonio





Final Breakdown:

Rookie of the Year: Kevin Durant
Comeback Player of the Year: Grant Hill
MVP: Steve Nash

All-NBA Team
Steve Nash
Tony Parker

Kobe Bryant

Kevin Garnett

Tim Duncan


Finals:

San Antonio over Miami, 4-1.
(I don't like the way that that picks look. To easy, and too much reliance on old players. I'm sticking with it, but if Miami starts the season 0-7 (like their football team, whom I picked to make the playoffs) I won't be even a little bit surprised.)


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